Frequency Analysis of Snowmelt Flood Based on GAMLSS Model in Manas River Basin, China

With the acceleration of human economic activities and dramatic changes in climate, validity stationarity assumption flood time series frequency analysis has been questioned. In this study, a framework for is developed on basis tool, namely, Generalized Additive Models Location, Scale, Shape (GAMLSS). We introduced model to construct non-stationary with climate factor as covariates 50-year snowmelt Kenswat Reservoir control basin Manas River. The study shows that there are clear non-stationarities regime, characteristic an increasing trend passing time. parameters distributions modelled functions indices (temperature rainfall). physical mechanism was incorporated into simulation results similar actual conditions, which can better describe dynamic process series. Compared design approved by China Renewable Energy Engineering Institute December 2008, value GAMLSS considers impact factors create risk dry years underestimating risk.